Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. 8. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. 2016 Election (1135) The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Election night is going to be information overload. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. (subject to censorship). What results did you discover? If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. In communities . Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Bellwether 2016 Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. our Gitlab account where you can So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. It gets a lot more interesting. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Ron Elving . hide caption. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Will That Last?]. University of New Hampshire . Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points.

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