FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. More Information Location: United States Genres: News & Politics Podcasts Politics News Networks: ABC News (US) Description: With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. The podcast crew discusses what Rep. Liz Cheney might do next with her message and what an independent bid for president might entail. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. OPEC+ announced its cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear Armageddon and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. Today those numbers have flipped. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. Thanks! The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The data behind that evolution is striking. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. 450 episodes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. 04:58 PM. Preview of Spotify. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. ( Businessweek) They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? NEW TOWN . From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecasts shift. 3 min read. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. All rights reserved. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. On the Conversations with Tyler podcast, produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, celebrated polymath and academic economist Tyler Cowen explores the minds and methods of today's top thinkers. Release date: 24 June 2015 Show more The Supreme Court Not So Much. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. Just another site fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. File Upload. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries news cycles and consider their lasting impact. . Nate Silver's. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. Mental Health AI & Data Science Politics News Business Investing English United States 365 episodes since Nov. 1, 2018 episodic IN THIS PODCAST FiveThirtyEight Politics Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. The State Of The Polls, 2016. You can't imitate a worldview. FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing. They determine whether we live in a free or repres Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. Galen Druke is the host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election.